Myriam Robin
The member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries will have a delicate balancing act when they meet in Vienna on
Thursday to decide whether to extend an
agreed cut in oil production that started in January to the end of
the year or beyond.
There are near universal
expectations that an extension will be negotiated. If it's shorter than the
market is expecting, it could lead to a drop in the oil price, causing
financial pain for some of OPEC's more cash-strapped nations. But if OPEC's
public comments convince traders it will ensure oil stockpiles are reduced to
their five-year average, it may embolden US producers to ramp up shale oil
production.
The member countries of the Organisation of
Petroleum Exporting Countries will have to execute a delicate balancing act
when they meet in Vienna on Thursday. Photo: ERIC GAY
US shale oil production is
due to technological improvements becoming cheaper, but is still more expensive
than the production methods of used by OPEC members and so requires high prices
to be profitable.
By June, it is forecast shale US shale oil producers, who have boosted
production 10 per cent since September, will add 5.4 million barrels a day to
the market. This is almost three times the 1.8 million barrels a day being
removed through the OPEC production cuts, and could overwhelm the impact
of OPEC's supply controls if prices continue to rise.
Optics are key, Citi's analysts told clients in a May 23 note, and will
be more important than fundamentals in driving the oil price over the next
month, which was on Wednesday trading at $US54.18, after trading below
$US48 on May 5.
Earlier
this week, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih told Bloomberg that
everyone he's spoken to believed a nine-month production cut was "a wise
decision". "We think we have everybody on board", he said.
Shortly afterwards, Iran's oil minister indicated his support for a nine-month
cut.
Because of this, analysts
at Citi expect a nine-month extension, and warn of an upset if it isn't
achieved.
"The Saudis have moved
expectations towards a nine-month market consensus and thus a six-month
extension is likely to be punished," they wrote in a May 23 note.
Citi's analysts believe a
six-month extension would be sufficient to tighten oil supplies significantly.
But oil prices over the next month are likely to be driven by optics rather
than market fundamentals, they wrote. "It would appear that a six-month
extension would be a backtracking of sorts."
Citi, like most analysts,
expects oil prices to keep their current levels, trading between $US50 to $US60
over the next year.
The big risk to the
forecast is posed by US shale oil producers, who are not members of OPEC and
may opportunistically add supply to the market if the oil price maintains these
levels.
The question of how to keep
prices high without encouraging more shale oil rigs to come into production is
one that's been assessed by the analysts at Goldman Sachs, who believe the key
to achieving this is for the oil market to go into 'backwardation' - a
situation where spot prices are higher than futures prices.
Shale oil producers
normally hedge their production, while OPEC members do not. As oil spot prices
have been lower than futures prices since the end of 2014, shale oil producers
have been able to sell their oil at higher prices than major OPEC producers.
Goldman believes futures
prices below $US45 a barrel would be enough to halt the growth in shale oil
production.
But achieving backwardation
would require a coordinated three-part strategy, involving at first. deeper or
more extended production cuts. This would then be followed by a commitment to raise
production once inventors return to their five-year average (suggesting weaker
short-term supply becoming more accommodative in the future) followed by a
gradual increase in production, in line with demand to keep spot prices above
futures prices.
"This seems quite a
tall order," Goldman's analysts admit, "[b]ut it is important to note
that this was how OPEC proceeded during the 1990s, with steady production
growth, decent compliance with output quotas and a persistent backwardation
outside recession."
The US government poses another risk to
OPEC's attempts to erode oil stockpiles. US President Donald Trump has proposed
selling more than half the country's emergency oil stockpile - which could
flood the market with 270 million barrels of oil over the next decade to raise
$16.6 billion.
Source: http://shink.in/uHKN5
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