Russia Seen as Greatest Threat in Poll as Oil Erodes Putin Power

November 16:

Russia poses the biggest security risk to world markets and will be the biggest loser from the drop in oil prices, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.

Asked which of five possibilities posed the greatest risk to global financial markets, 52 percent of participants chose the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Twenty-six percent cited Islamic State, while Ebola barely registered with 5 percent. The U.S. was seen as the most likely beneficiary from lower crude prices.

Russia is being buffeted by the twin blows of sanctions and an oil-market selloff that threatens to hollow out its economy. While Russia is menacing Ukraine with tanks and sending its jets into foreign airspace, PresidentVladimir Putin said Nov. 14 that the drop in crude is potentially “catastrophic” for the world’s largest energy exporter.

“The Russia-Ukraine situation is more dangerous as we have a sovereign state, which is trying to increase its power by creating chaos both through threatening actions of war,” Mikael Simonsen, chief sales manager for cross asset sales at Nordea Bank in Helsinki and a poll respondent, said by e-mail. “This might impact the common thinking of how developed we are today, and impact the risk premium

The poll of 510 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers was conducted Nov. 11-12 by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Investors have been confronted by a series of geopolitical crises this year ranging from war in Eastern Europe to Ebola in Africa and persistent territorial tensions between China and its neighbors. In the past week alone, Russia moved warships toward Australia on the eve of a Group of 20 summit and announced plans to extend its long-range bomber patrols as far as the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-16/russia-seen-as-greatest-threat-in-poll-as-oil-erodes-putin-power.html?