Published: February 25, 2010
WASHINGTON — Despite intense public and private pressure by the Obama administration, China has not yet shown any sign that it will support tougher sanctions against Iran, leaving a stubborn barrier before President Obama’s efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.Diplomats from two major European allies said this week that China had refused even to “engage substantively” on the issue of sanctions, preferring to continue diplomatic efforts with Tehran. And one senior diplomat said he believed that the most likely outcome might be a decision by China to abstain from voting on a resolution in the United Nations Security Council.
“An abstention is better than a veto,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the delicacy of the matter.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressed optimism this week that China was edging toward the American view that the time had come for tougher measures against Iran. But other administration officials acknowledged that her optimism was based less on tangible evidence than on a belief that China would not want to end up diplomatically isolated.
China, the officials note, has backed all three previous United Nations sanctions resolutions on Iran, overcoming its initial reluctance. Last November, it joined 25 other members of the International Atomic Energy Agency in rebuking Iran for concealing a uranium enrichment plant at Qum.
“I think we’ve made a lot of progress,” Mrs. Clinton said Wednesday in testimony before the Senate, adding that she believed that the Security Council would adopt a resolution in the “next 30 to 60 days.”
In a sign that the administration may be managing expectations in light of China’s stance, she noted that the United Nations was not the only arena for squeezing Iran. The United States and the European Union are expected to impose their own sanctions, she said, and other countries could team up against Iran.
“We will look at additional bilateral and preferably multilateral sanctions with willing nations, on top of whatever we get out of the Security Council,” Mrs. Clinton said Thursday before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “So, in sum, we believe in a broad approach.”
For now, though, the spotlight is on the United Nations, where she said diplomats were “hammering out” the language of a resolution. The United States, Britain, France and Germany are largely united around sanctions aimed at equipment and financing for Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, with an emphasis on measures against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which runs those programs.
Russia is also expected to support a resolution, though diplomats predicted that it would try to water down the sanctions.
That leaves China, which declared again this week that it preferred diplomacy. Experts say Beijing is being driven partly by its commercial ties: it has vast investments in Iran’s oil and gas sector, and Iran is its second largest supplier of oil, after Saudi Arabia. It also has a deep aversion to sanctions, stemming from its own experience after the Communist revolution in 1949.
“China regards sanctions as ineffective, counterproductive and a form of interference in other countries’ affairs,” said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution.
For all that, some experts said they saw hints that China might be coming around to tougher measures.
It did not object when the Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental body that combats money laundering and terrorism financing, put Iran on a blacklist last week. (China is a member of the task force.) Nor did it protest last week when the atomic energy agency issued another report critical of Iran’s efforts to conceal its nuclear activities.
“I took that as a hopeful tea leaf,” said Patrick Clawson, the deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I don’t see the Chinese as on board with general-purpose sanctions,” he said. “But if you’re willing to go with nuclear-related things, I think you could get a Chinese ‘yes.’ ”
By playing hard to get, a European diplomat noted, China had put itself “at the heart of the process.”
Mrs. Clinton has kept the pressure on China by arguing that its energy security would be threatened by the instability that a nuclear-armed Iran would create in the Middle East.
Other countries are also pushing: a delegation of senior Israeli officials arrived in Beijing on Thursday, and was expected to raise the Iran issue. Saudi Arabia said last week that it hoped China would back a resolution.
Mrs. Clinton’s sales pitch is not limited to China. Next week, she is scheduled to travel to Brazil, which currently holds a rotating seat on the Security Council and which has said it opposes sanctions. Officials said she would pressure the Brazilian government to fall in line.
The United States has said it wants international solidarity in the campaign against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But of the 15 countries that now hold seats on the Council, 5 are viewed as reluctant: China, Brazil, Turkey, Lebanon and Bosnia. Nine yes votes are needed to adopt a resolution.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/26/world/asia/26diplo.html
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