Published Date: 10 December 2009
By Jenny Fyall
THE most stringent measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will still leave hundreds of millions of people suffering crop failures, flooding and water shortages by the end of the century, according to research by British scientists.
Research presented to the Copenhagen climate summit yesterday showed that a deal to keep global temperature rises at 2C could reduce by between half and two thirds the impacts of global warming.
However, this meant there would still be a devastating impact on crops, water supplies
and flooding.
By the end of the century, a 2C temperature rise would still see about 400 million people struggling to access water, compared to 800 million people if no action was taken to tackle global warming.
There would be about a 30 per cent increase in crop failure compared to 50 per cent if no action was taken.
And the number of people at an increased risk of flooding would reduce by about half if temperature rises were kept to 2C.
Negotiations at the conference are focused on thrashing out a deal that will keep global temperature rises to 2C, which has been adopted as the threshold for avoiding "dangerous" climate change.
However, the research will come as a reminder that as well as setting limits on greenhouse gas emissions to keep within 2C, action needs to be taken to adapt to what scientists claim are now inevitable impacts of climate change.
The research was carried out by the University of Reading's Walker Institute, the Met Office and the Tyndall Centre, as part of a UK programme called AVOID.
It was the most comprehensive study to date of how reducing greenhouse gas emissions could help to avoid the impacts of climate change.
Professor Nigel Arnell, director of the Walker Institute, said: "Reducing greenhouse gas emission is vital to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, but it won't avoid the impacts altogether.
"Adaptation to the climate change we can't avoid is as important as measures to control greenhouse gas emissions."
Most of the impacts of tackling climate change will not kick in until about 2050, no matter how stringent the cuts in emissions, according to the research.
However, the earlier the emissions begin to be reduced, the greater the impacts in the long term.
Yesterday negotiators from the tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu called at the summit for action to be taken for global temperature rises to be kept to 1.5C above industrial levels, instead of 2C.
The low-lying island will be one of the first victims of rising seas.
"Our future rests on the outcome of this meeting," said Tuvalu delegate Ian Fry.
As the 192-nation conference attempted to bridge a chasm between rich and poor countries over how to share the burden of fighting climate change, a report by the UN World Food Programme predicted more than 100 million more people around the world could be going hungry by mid century as a result of climate change.
It warned that the number affected by hunger could rise by between 10 and 20 per cent without action to tackle global warming, with two thirds of the increase concentrated in Africa.
Efforts to curb climate change by cutting greenhouse gases could reduce the increase in those going hungry by half, the study said.
Professor Martin Parry, lead author of the study and former co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said: "Increase in world hunger is the single most important threat that climate change brings.
"We will have to confront this challenge both by robust emissions reduction and massive efforts at adaptation.
"The adaptation will require substantial research, innovation and reform of agriculture, especially in the places most vulnerable to climate change: the semi-arid tropics and low-lying coastal zones."
Africa is expected to bear the brunt of increases in hunger, because it will become increasingly arid. By 2050, the number of children suffering from malnutrition could increase by a quarter, putting 10 million extra youngsters at risk.
Worldwide, the number of children who are malnourished could increase by 24 million, the report warned.
COUNCIL PLEDGE
EDINBURGH will aim to cut its carbon emissions by 10 per cent by the end of 2010.
The City of Edinburgh Council has signed up to the national 10:10 campaign.
Now the council is encouraging businesses, hospitals, universities and schools to cut emissions.
Energy use of buildings, road transport and air travel will be key focuses.
Council leader Jenny Dawe signed the pledge at 10:10am yesterday at the City Chambers, making it the 100th UK local authority to join the campaign.
Ms Dawe, said: "We have focused our attention on developing a realistic and ambitious carbon reduction programme, setting the council as an exemplar in the city.
"The 10:10 campaign is a logical progression of this approach and these reductions bring a welcome focus to that work"
Alexis Rowell, co-ordinator of the 10:10 councils, said: "Councils like Edinburgh are the unsung heroes of the 10:10 campaign.
"When a local authority says it will cut its emissions by 10 per cent in 2010, then it is bound to set a plan and residents can check progress."
Aberdeen City Council was the first in Scotland to join up to the campaign, which sets a minimum target of a 3 per cent cut in emissions by the end of 2010.
FLAG DAY
AN EXTRA £425,000 has been given by the Scottish Government to fund a scheme to teach children to be more environmentally aware.
The money, split between the education and environment budgets, will be used to help fund Scotland's Eco Schools programme.
Schools minister Keith Brown announced the funding during a visit to Edinburgh's Portobello High School, the first secondary in Scotland to achieve permanent green flag status – the highest award under the international Eco Schools programme.
Mr Brown said: "Scotland is a leading country within the Eco-Schools movement and pupils are taking forward a wide range of initiatives to increase awareness and involvement in sustainable development and environmental issues."
Over 95 per cent of Scotland's schools have taken part in the project, with more than 900 achieving green flag status. Mr Brown added: "We want our young people to be responsible and aware of how their actions impact, both in their communities and the wider world."
The Eco Schools programme is run by Keep Scotland Beautiful.
John Summers, chief executive of Keep Scotland Beautiful, said: "We anticipate 2010 will be even more memorable, with the anticipated award of our 1,000th green flag."
Source: http://news.scotsman.com/news/Flooding-crop--failures-.5899070.jp?
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