March 7, 2010
Middle East oil demand could grow by nearly five percent in 2010, outpacing a modest recovery in global energy demand as the world’s top oil exporting governments continue spending to boost economies, analysts said.
Oil export income has fuelled expansion in the region, and given governments the cash to spend their way through the global economic downturn.
Cheap subsidized fuel has encouraged rapid energy consumption growth that some regional governments have struggled to meet.
OPEC’s top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iran would drive more than half the Middle East’s oil demand growth.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) expected demand growth in 2010 in the region of 320,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 4.5 percent, to reach a total of 7.55 million bpd, said Eduardo Lopez, a senior oil demand analyst at the IEA.
That was over twice the IEA’s forecast 2010 global oil demand growth of 1.8 percent, the first growth year in three years after recession cut fuel use.
PFC Energy estimates product demand to grow about 3.85 percent in 2010.
Rising diesel and gasoline demand would spur demand growth of 130,000 bpd in top oil exporter Saudi Arabia in 2010, taking total demand for the Arab world’s largest economy to 2.76 million bpd. That was higher than demand for Brazil and close to Russia’s fuel consumption.
“In Saudi Arabia, the main demand driver comes from the transportation sector, although power generation is also important,” said Victor Shum an analyst with energy consultancy Purvin & Gertz.
Reserves accumulated during the oil price rally of 2002-2008 had given the Saudi economy a cushion to absorb the blows the global crisis dealt the region over the past two years.
Steady gains in oil prices during 2009 meant that it had to draw less on those reserves than it would have in a lower price environment.
Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth is expected to be 3.8 percent in 2010, well up from 0.2 percent in 2009 as state spending remains high and private consumption picks up, a Reuters poll showed.
The kingdom would cut diesel exports by 19 percent to around 105,000 bpd in 2010 as domestic demand absorbed more Saudi refinery output.
Seasonal diesel demand peaks in the summer as the population run air conditioning units hard to counter soaring temperatures. This year, that peak was likely to be higher than ever as power demand rises.
In Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, demand would rise 110,000 bpd to 1.86 million bpd, up more than 6 percent of the year and reversing a contraction in 2009.
(Source: TradeArabia)
Review: http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=215512
Middle East oil demand could grow by nearly five percent in 2010, outpacing a modest recovery in global energy demand as the world’s top oil exporting governments continue spending to boost economies, analysts said.
Oil export income has fuelled expansion in the region, and given governments the cash to spend their way through the global economic downturn.
Cheap subsidized fuel has encouraged rapid energy consumption growth that some regional governments have struggled to meet.
OPEC’s top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iran would drive more than half the Middle East’s oil demand growth.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) expected demand growth in 2010 in the region of 320,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 4.5 percent, to reach a total of 7.55 million bpd, said Eduardo Lopez, a senior oil demand analyst at the IEA.
That was over twice the IEA’s forecast 2010 global oil demand growth of 1.8 percent, the first growth year in three years after recession cut fuel use.
PFC Energy estimates product demand to grow about 3.85 percent in 2010.
Rising diesel and gasoline demand would spur demand growth of 130,000 bpd in top oil exporter Saudi Arabia in 2010, taking total demand for the Arab world’s largest economy to 2.76 million bpd. That was higher than demand for Brazil and close to Russia’s fuel consumption.
“In Saudi Arabia, the main demand driver comes from the transportation sector, although power generation is also important,” said Victor Shum an analyst with energy consultancy Purvin & Gertz.
Reserves accumulated during the oil price rally of 2002-2008 had given the Saudi economy a cushion to absorb the blows the global crisis dealt the region over the past two years.
Steady gains in oil prices during 2009 meant that it had to draw less on those reserves than it would have in a lower price environment.
Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth is expected to be 3.8 percent in 2010, well up from 0.2 percent in 2009 as state spending remains high and private consumption picks up, a Reuters poll showed.
The kingdom would cut diesel exports by 19 percent to around 105,000 bpd in 2010 as domestic demand absorbed more Saudi refinery output.
Seasonal diesel demand peaks in the summer as the population run air conditioning units hard to counter soaring temperatures. This year, that peak was likely to be higher than ever as power demand rises.
In Iran, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, demand would rise 110,000 bpd to 1.86 million bpd, up more than 6 percent of the year and reversing a contraction in 2009.
(Source: TradeArabia)
Review: http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=215512
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